Robinhood markets inc（HOOD.US AI Earnings Summary）
HOOD AI Earnings Summary (In-Depth)
2026 Q3
Core Highlights
Record Broken but Headwinds Emerge: Revenue Slightly Misses Expectations and Crypto Softens; Market Responds with Post-Market Slump
- Stock Price Reaction: Earnings were released after the regular session at 4:05 p.m. ET on October 27, 2026. The pre-release close was $94.56, up approximately 1.85% in that regular session. The first full post-release session, October 28, closed at $91.43, down approximately 3.31% from the pre-release close. After the release, the stock fell roughly 4% to 7% in after-hours trading.
- Market Expectations: Pre-release revenue expectations were $1.44 billion versus actual revenue of $1.424 billion, approximately 1.1% below expectations. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51 versus expectations of $0.56, approximately 8.9% lower. The newly introduced non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.60 is not compared with that GAAP consensus.
- Guidance from Last Quarter: Full-year adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation (SBC) guidance was revised downward to $2.675B to $2.750B, lowering the upper bound of the range by $25M, fulfilling the commitment made last quarter.
- In One Sentence: Revenue reached a record, revenue and GAAP EPS were slightly below expectations, and shares closed approximately 3.31% lower in the first full session after earnings.
Quarterly Highlights
Revenue reached a record, but revenue and GAAP diluted EPS were slightly below expectations. Pre-release revenue expectations were $1.44 billion versus actual revenue of $1.424 billion, approximately 1.1% below expectations. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51 versus expectations of $0.56, approximately 8.9% lower. The newly introduced non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.60 is not compared with that GAAP consensus. Adjusted EBITDA reached $808M, up 9% YoY, with margins maintained at 57%. The company had over $5.5 billion of annualized revenue. Its LTM Rule of 40 score was 77 (21% revenue growth plus 56% adjusted EBITDA margin), rounded to approximately 80 in management commentary.
Revenue diversification accelerates, with 14 business lines each exceeding $100M in annualized revenue: Transaction revenue grew 19% YoY to $867M, including options up 31% to $399M, equities up 41% to $121M, and event contract revenue at approximately 6.4 times the prior-year level, up approximately 541% to $173M. Rothera (Prediction Market Exchange) reached the $100M annualized revenue threshold in its first full quarter of operation, becoming the 14th business line to break this mark.
Robinhood Gold subscribers surpass 5M, up 34% YoY: Gold subscribers reached 5.18M, a 34% YoY increase, with overall customer adoption rising from 14.5% a year ago to 18%. Adoption among new customers joining this quarter exceeded 40%, indicating deepening stickiness. CEO Vlad Tenev noted this represents 4x growth since the Gold revamp was launched four years ago.
Total platform assets approach $400B, a record high: Total platform assets reached $396B, up 19% YoY and 7% QoQ, with retirement assets up 51% YoY to $36.6B. Annualized Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) reached $200, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, both record highs.
Robinhood Chain becomes a top 5 global chain in its first quarter: The Robinhood Chain mainnet launched on July 1. Q3 decentralized exchange (DEX) volume exceeded $80B, and cumulative volume exceeded $100B by the earnings call, and chain fee revenue reached $50M (gross), with net revenue after profit sharing with Arbitrum at approximately $25M (approx. $100M annualized). Recently, daily volume for on-chain DeFi Perpetuals exceeded $1B.
Strong early adoption of Agentic Trading, with agent account assets exceeding $250M: Robinhood became the first US broker to offer agentic trading capabilities within its app, allowing users to execute trading strategies automatically via AI agents. Despite accounts requiring active funding from zero, agent account assets have surpassed $250M, with the adoption curve showing an accelerating trend.
Robinhood Banking becomes the top destination for outflows, surpassing all traditional major banks: This quarter, Robinhood Banking became the largest destination for outflows from Robinhood brokerage customers (by dollar amount) for the first time, surpassing all major large banks, even while Banking remains in limited release. Credit card net interest income grew 194% YoY to $50M, and margin interest grew 59% YoY to $244M.
Expense control better than expected, full-year adjusted expense upper bound lowered by $25M: Adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation (SBC) this quarter were $664M, falling within the previously expected range. Management lowered the full-year adjusted expense guidance upper bound by $25M, to a new range of $2.675B to $2.75B (the midpoint is approximately $13M lower than the previous forecast). Annualized revenue per employee approached $2M, a record high.
Strong start to Q4, October net deposits reached $13B, full-year target achieved early: October net deposits exceeded $13B (including $6B from Dell family donations to Trump Accounts). Year-to-date cumulative net deposits exceed $68B, surpassing the full-year 20% growth target with two months remaining in the year.